Unique insights regarding how the FX market today is developing.

Whereas Episode 31 of our podcast series focused largely on the evolution of FX algo designs, here John Quayle from NatWest Markets discusses the evolution of how buy-side firms (and indeed which buy-side firms) are using these products to improve their FX execution capabilities.

He discusses using algos to trade emerging market (EM) currencies, why corporate treasurers might be thinking about these products differently from real money or hedge fund clients, how to effectively benchmark the performance of different algos and more.

What are the key factors likely to move currency markets between now and the end of the year and, perhaps more importantly, what risks aren’t currently being priced into the market?
These are amongst the questions addressed by Axel Merk from Merk Investments in our latest episode. Merk also discusses the FX liquidity trends, how diverging interest rates could help certain trading strategies and what recent events in China mean for global financial markets.

In this episode Asif Razaq from BNP Paribas talks about why the pandemic has driven an uptick in the number of firms using execution algos for their FX trades and traces the evolution of these tools from basic, rules-based strategies to sophisticated and interactive ones which effectively enable human traders to augment their own skills.

Razaq also delivers his view on what will come next in the FX algo space, arguing that we are likely to begin seeing these tools deployed across a broader range of instrument types.

This latest podcast episode comes from the Canadian Association of Alternative Strategies & Assets (CAASA) and features Tom Nakamura, Vice-President and Portfolio Manager, Currency Strategy and Co-Head of Fixed Income at AGF Investments, and Matt O’Hara, CEO of 360T Americas, analysing some key trends that they’re observing in the currency markets. It’s a wide ranging discussion which covers the impact of credit constraints, new technological innovations, evolving cost pressures and how the pandemic has changed behaviours within the FX industry.

Stuart Simmons, Director and Head of Currency at QIC, argues in the latest episode that not only is the London 4pm Fix not a good time to trade FX on behalf of investors, but that in fact it might be the very worst time to do so. Expanding on this, he claims that order flow imbalance lead to herd behaviour amongst investment managers trading at the Fix that in turn causes market impact which negatively impacts execution outcomes. On top of this, Simmons makes the case that the interests of investors are misaligned with both asset managers and their counterparty banks when it comes to using the 4pm Fix as a benchmark.

In March 2021 Millennium Global Investments published a report analysing whether emerging market (EM) currencies were priced as cheap or expensive relative to the global environment. The authors of that report, Claire Dissaux and Elisa Baku — who respectively hold the titles of Global Head of Economics and Strategy and Economist at the currency management specialist — both join the podcast to discuss its findings, and what they mean for investors. They also talk about why currency performance is likely to diverge significantly amongst EM countries and how the pandemic has impacted conditions in these markets.

With the Uncleared Margin Rules (UMR) due to start impacting a number of buy-side firms starting this September, Van Luu, Global head of Currency at Russell Investments, discusses the preparations that his firm has been making to ensure compliance, both on their own behalf and on behalf of their clients.
He then goes on to analyse how investors should be thinking about currency hedging in the Covid era, analysing the various pros and cons associated with different approaches to hedging FX exposures.

New regulatory requirements have been a huge driver of change within financial markets over the past decade, and FX has certainly not been exempt from this trend. Even now, Allan Guild, the director of Hilltop Walk Consulting, sees the direction of travel in the industry being towards a more regulated trading environment, which market participants will need to adapt to. Consequently, Guild argues that there is now an opportunity for greater innovation around automation, best execution and building a holistic approach to FX trading.

The over-arching theme of this episode is the “tech-celeration” that has occurred in the FX industry over the past year as firms have been forced to adapt to new ways of operating. Paul Matherne, Head of FX EMEA at BNY Mellon, sees evidence of this trend in how buy-side firms are looking at custody, their willingness to use algos and their desire to automate more of their FX trading and workflows. And looking ahead, he argues that market structure changes will continue to fuel more innovation in 2021.